Day 2 Convective Outlook
 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z FRI 21/03 - 06Z SAT 22/03 2003
ISSUED: 20/03 18:55Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORWAY

SYNOPSIS

EAST OF BLOCKING RIDGE, ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO FLOW SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN EUROPE. ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIODE. OVER THE NORTHSEA ... BLOCKING RIDGE IS WEAKENING TEMPORARILY WHILE NORTHERN ATLANTIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL EUROPE REACHING FRANCE ON FRIDAY NOON. OVER SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE ... QUASISTATIONARY TROUGH IS CUTTING OFF AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD EFFECT THE EXTREMELY SOUTHWESTERN MEDITERRANEAN. OVER THE EXTREMELY NORTHERN EUROPE ... INTENSE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORCAST TO REACH SCANDINAVIA THAT WILL PUSH STRONG WESTERLY JET SOUTHWARD.

DISCUSSION

...SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE...
AS STRONG ARCTIC OUTBREAK EFFECTS EASTERN EUROPE, MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. WITHIN FRIDAY EVENING ... COLDFRONT WILL REACH THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND CYCLOGENESIS IS FORCAST. AHEAD OF THE COLDFRONT ... SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD NOT BE EXCEPTED, EVEN SOUNDINGS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME THOUGH, WHAT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH SYRIA WITHIN THE NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA...
AS TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TURNS SOUTHWARD WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD EFFECT THIS REGION. CAPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LOW DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER, WHICH ADVECT RELATIVELY COLD AND MOIST AIRMASSES ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN. DIURNAL HEATING AND IMPACT OF OROGRAPHY COULD HELP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT RULED OUT.

...SOUTHERN FRANCE...
MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL REACH FRANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME LIFT. LOW THETA-E VALUES SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

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